Basingstoke is likely be classed as a coronavirus ‘hotspot’ on what would have been “freedom day” for England, according to a model by university scientists.

A map by Imperial College London says it is 81 per cent likely Basingstoke and Deane as a council area will have at least 50 cases per 100,000 people by June 21, the original day when lockdown was due to end.

The university’s Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis classes areas with such a rate as a Covid-19 ‘hotspot’.

The Imperial College model is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

Basingstoke has a current rolling rate of 41.9 cases per 100,000 people, which is slightly above average for the UK according to the latest Government data.

The Imperial modelling suggests that Basingstoke will be the worst affected area in Hampshire, over taking large cities Southampton and Portsmouth as well as Hart and Rushmoor, which currently have higher rolling rates at 60.8 and 55.0 retrospectively.  

Brighton Hill currently has the highest number of cases in the borough with 15 cases, as of June 9, giving it a rolling rate of 207.6- the second highest rolling rate in Hampshire after Highfield and University in Southampton.

Bramley, Sherfield and the Sherbornes have the second highest rolling rate, with 10 cases as of June 9, giving a rate of 105.9 cases per 100,000 people.

By June 27, the borough has a 53 per cent chance of seeing more than 100 cases according to the Imperial College tool.

NHS data shows 71,708 people in Basingstoke and Deane had received both jabs by June 6 – 51 per cent of those aged 16 and over, based on the latest population estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

Of those to have received both jabs, 67,931 were aged 30 and over – 59 per cent of the age group.

It means 3,777 people aged between 16 to 29 have received both doses.

Hampshire Hospitals Trust, which runs Basingstoke and North Hampshire Hospital, was caring for four coronavirus patients in hospital as of last Tuesday (June 8).

NHS England data shows the number of people being treated in hospital for Covid-19 by 8am on June 8 was in line with the same day the previous week.

There were two beds occupied by Covid-19 patients four weeks ago in Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.