VARIOUS seat prediction polls show that Basingstoke could see its first ever Labour MP in the next general election, with the Conservatives losing their seat for the first time in 100 years. 

The Gazette has checked three seat prediction sites which all show that the Conservatives could lose their seat in the borough for the first time since 1923, when the town had a Liberal MP.

With the exception of 1923 to 1924, the town has elected Conservative MPs since 1885, and has been seen as a Conservative ‘safe seat’.

READ MORE: Basingstoke bank transformed into three-floor restaurant and cocktail bar

The closest it came to a non-Conservative victory was in 2001, when Andrew Hunter, MP since 1983, won with a small majority of 880 votes in his final election.

Basingstoke’s current MP, Maria Miller, has been MP for the town since 2005.

The Electoral Calculus website shows Labour having a 70 per cent chance of winning a seat in Basingstoke at the next general election, taking into account new boundary changes which have seen existing constituencies reshuffled under a review by the Independent Boundary Commission for England.

It will see the villages of Pamber Green, Little London and Sherborne St John moved from the Basingstoke constituency to North West Hampshire.

Old Basing, Mapledurwell, and Nately, will be moved from Basingstoke to North East Hampshire, while the Basingstoke boundary will shift to the west to include North Waltham, Steventon, and Malshanger.

The Electoral Calculus predicts a turnout of 66 per cent in Basingstoke, with 41.6 per cent of votes going to Labour, 33 per cent to the Conservatives, 12.5 per cent to Lib Dem and 5.9 per cent to the Green party.

The website uses experience of elections and advanced polling analysis to make predictions of the likely result.

SEE ALSO: 'Just shoot them in the face' Basingstoke hospital workers' offensive posts go viral

UK Polling Report, a non-partisan website that uses a data-driven approach, also predicts a Labour gain in the town.

It predicts Labour will win with 41.8 per cent of the votes, closely followed by Conservatives with 39.6 per cent, Lib Dems with 12 per cent and the Green Party with 6.6 per cent.

Election Polling website, which gives an overview of public opinion from UK opinion polls, also predicts a Labour gain in Basingstoke.

Nationally, it predicts that Labour will gain 148 seats winning with a majority of 50, while it predicts the Conservatives will lose 169 seats and the Lib Dems will gain 19.

The other two websites also predict an overall win for Labour at the next general election.

David Lawrence, the Labour parliamentary candidate for Basingstoke, said: “This poll prediction is encouraging and reflects what we are hearing on the doorstep: voters are fed up with the current government and are willing to vote for change.

READ MORE: 'It hasn't sunk in yet' - World champion Ben Pattison on his medal win

“However, we still have lots of work to do to set out a concrete vision for Britain’s future and win the trust of voters in Basingstoke.

“That is why I am speaking to hundreds of residents in Basingstoke every week, to get a sense of what people’s priorities are, and running a Basingstoke-wide residents’ survey on my website.

“What the poll shows very clearly is that Labour is the clear choice to get rid of the Conservatives in Basingstoke.”

He added: “I will do my very best to be a strong and energetic advocate for our town, and work tirelessly for its residents.”

Dame Maria has been asked for a comment.

A date for the next general election has not yet been set, however, it is due to be held before January 2025.