A NEW poll predicts Labour to be more than five per cent clear of the Conservatives in Basingstoke ahead of the General Election next week.

The poll, by More in Common, projects a Tory defeat across the country, with the Conservative party on course for its worst results in over a century only winning 155 seats, while Labour is expected to take 406 - a majority of 162.

In Basingstoke, Labour is ahead by 5.4 per cent, polling at 38 per cent with the Tories sitting behind with 32.6 per cent.

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Labour has never won in Basingstoke, and a victory in the General Election on Thursday, July 4 would be historic.

The poll predicts a two-horse race, with Labour's candidate, Luke Murphy, predicted 38 per cent and Dame Maria Miller of the Conservatives polling at 32.6 per cent.

Liberal Democrat candidate, Richard Whelan, is predicted to take third place, with 11.3 per cent while Reform UK's Raymond Saint was projected 9.5 per cent of the vote and the Green Party's Michael Howard-Sorrell is predicted to take seven per cent of the constituency's vote.

The poll was made prior to Mr Saint being dropped by Reform UK over alleged BNP membership. 

Other candidates, including Hampshire Independent's Alan Stone, are predicted just 1.6 per cent of the vote.

The survey is based on MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis), which is less effective at predicting seat distribution for smaller parties.

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It uses data from a voting intention poll to model how people will vote based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency.

These results are then applied to the demographic and electoral makeup of each constituency to make a constituency-level prediction. 

More in Common said: "MRP models don’t account for local factors that impact a small number of constituencies, such as a popular incumbent, well-known or controversial council policy Therefore it would be a mistake to draw too much from the projected vote share in an individual constituency."